On the evening of November 25, local time, US President-elect Trump said that as soon as he takes office in January next year, he will impose a new tariff of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Before that, he promised American voters that he would impose tariffs of more than 60% on China. Some commentators believe that this is a bargaining negotiation tactic, while others believe that this is what he wants to do. What is his strategic intention and how should relevant countries respond?
From past examples, it can be seen that Trump does like to trade and has strong trading skills, but his MAGA ("Make America Great Again") platform for two elections and one administration is more clear, which includes but is not limited to re-industrialization, promoting the return of manufacturing, and realizing "buy American goods and hire Americans". He is willing to pay a huge price for this, and has a special liking for tariff barriers and has an outstanding record of fulfilling his campaign promises.
Judging from the members of his team who have surfaced so far, this is basically the collective mainstream opinion. Now that he has an overwhelming advantage in the election, American voters have authorized him to fulfill his promises, and there are fewer constraints from the establishment than before. If he puts pressure on negotiations and talks about deals, it will only be a temporary tactic and expedient, and the strategic goal will still be his MAGA program.
Due to the huge influence of the United States on the world, history may record that since Trump first came to power in 2017, the globalized world pattern since the end of the Cold War has been gradually coming to an end. Biden has inherited and adjusted this since 2021, and there has been a tug-of-war in Europe, but many countries are still moving towards right-wing, conservative, and trade barriers. Now is just a transition period between the old and the new. For the relevant countries, the opportunity period of integrating into globalization in the past few decades is already dusk. But this prospect is not to move towards the peaceful and tranquil scene of Lao Tzu's "neighboring countries look at each other, the sounds of chickens and dogs are heard, and the people do not interact with each other until they die of old age", but to step into a "world of great contention".
Over the years, China and other countries have made full use of global resources and markets to develop commodity export models, which have achieved great success. Even Canada, Mexico and other countries are following suit. In the new historical stage, although these countries can strive to stabilize the developed countries market outside the United States and vigorously expand trade with southern countries, these are not enough to "feed" domestic production capacity. In order to remain invincible in the international economic and trade pattern where mountaintops and camps are increasingly evident, the relevant countries must also solve the problems of insufficient domestic demand and sluggish consumption, and achieve both production capacity and consumption through their own reforms.
The "Tao Te Ching" says: "Therefore, if a big country is below a small country, it will take the small country; if a small country is below a big country, it will take the big country." If a big country can be humble to a small country, it can get the support of the small country; if a small country can be humble to a big country, it can get the favor of the big country. The key here is "Therefore, the big country only wants to keep people, and the small country only wants to serve people. Both get what they want, and the big country should be the lower." Revisiting this classic is not without enlightenment for modern people.
当地时间11月25日晚，美国候任总统特朗普表示，明年1月他一上任，就将对来自加拿大、墨西哥的商品征收25%的新关税，并将对中国的商品加征10%的关税。而在此前，他对美国选民承诺将对中国征收超过60%的关税。有评论认为这是一种讨价还价的谈判手腕，也有人认为这就是他要干的。他的战略意图是什么，有关国家如何应对？
从以往多年事例可见，特朗普的确喜欢交易，也有很强的交易技能，但他两次竞选和一次执政的ＭＡＧＡ（“让美国再次伟大”）纲领更加明确，那就包括但不限于再度工业化，促使制造业回流，实现“买美国货、雇美国人”，为此不惜付出巨大代价，并对关税壁垒情有独钟，并有出众的履行竞选承诺的记录。
从他目前已经浮出水面的团队成员来看，这也基本上是集体主流意见。如今挟压倒性胜选优势，美国选民授权他兑现承诺，又比以前更少了建制派的掣肘，假如他虚虚实实地施压谈判，谈起交易，但那只是一时的战术、权宜之计，而战略目的依然会是他的ＭＡＧＡ纲领。
由于美国对世界的巨大影响力，历史可能将会记录，自2017年特朗普第一次上位以来，冷战结束以来的全球化世界格局就在逐步走向终结。拜登2021年以来对此有沿袭和调整，欧洲也有左右拉锯，但多国仍在朝着右化、保守化、贸易壁垒化方向走，现在只是新旧之间的过渡期而已。对有关国家来说，过去几十年融入全球化的机遇期已是黄昏。但这一前景，并不是要走向老子说的“邻邦相望，鸡狗之声相闻，民至老死不相往来”的安宁、恬静的场景，而是在步入一个“大争之世”。
多年来，中国等国家充分利用全球资源和市场，发展商品出口模式，赢得了极大的成功，连加拿大、墨西哥等国也在效仿。在新的历史阶段，这些国家虽然可以争取稳住美国以外的发达国家市场，强力扩大与南方国家贸易往来，但这些还不足以“喂饱”国内的产能。在山头化、阵营化日益明显的国际经贸格局中要长期立于不败之地，有关国家还得解决内需不足、消费不振的弊端，通过自身改革实现产能和消费的双旺。
《道德经》有言：“故大邦以下小邦，则取小邦；小邦以下大邦，则取于大邦。”大国如能对小国谦卑，则能得到小国的支持；小国若能对大国谦卑，则能获得大国的厚待。而这里面的关键，是“故大邦者不过欲兼畜人，小邦者不过欲入事人，夫皆得其欲，大者宜为下。”重温这一经典，对今人不无启迪。
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