Will Trump's second term in office accelerate the disintegration of the post World War II international order? 特朗普二次执政将加速二战后国际秩序的解体？

微信公众号老子宸 李首之原创 《特朗普二次执政将加速二战后国际秩序的解体？》

On January 20th local time, Trump will take office as the President of the United States for the second time.

In his previous term, he had already strongly pushed for the end of economic globalization. In the new term, will he become another person to accelerate the disintegration of the post World War II international order, following Putin's attack on Ukraine?

Is the current era similar to the transition from the Spring and Autumn period to the Warring States period in China?

 

During this period of waiting for his inauguration, Trump has taken frequent actions and has already entered the role of "president" ahead of schedule. He mediated the Russo Ukrainian war, intervened in the Israeli Palestinian conflict, and expressed his intention to acquire Greenland, annex Canada, and reclaim the Panama Canal.

For those who do not care at all about the post World War II international order, all countries are equal regardless of their size, respect each other, and sovereign states are not violated... What is all this!

Since Putin is attempting to permanently occupy Ukrainian territory and cannot be expelled or held accountable, why can't others?

 

Focusing on Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal is in line with the retreat from economic globalization to isolationism.

Strategically shrink from Europe and the Middle East, and hold onto the North American fundamentals;

Continue to implement the balance of power strategy and offshore balance, forcing the EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and other countries to increase spending, engage in strategic competition with emerging powers in Asia and Europe, and prevent any strong country, especially the strongest, from expanding;

On the other hand, reduce expenditures and expand profits, build a high tariff wall externally, reduce taxes domestically, and revitalize domestic industries;

Establishing a "Greater North American Co Prosperity Sphere" called "MAGA" south of the Arctic Ocean, north of the Panama Canal, west of the Atlantic Ocean, and east of the Pacific Ocean may be Trump's demand.

 

From his first term to his second term, Trump may shift from dismantling economic globalization to further accelerating the dismantling of the post World War II international order.

The existing international order was established at the end of World War II in 1945, evolving from one framework and two systems during the Cold War to one framework and quasi one system after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

A framework that centers around the United Nations, upholds multilateralism under the maintenance of the five strong order, and uses dialogue and cooperation as mechanisms to reduce and avoid wars and conflicts.

Two systems, namely the division of the world into two "hemispheres" due to the US Soviet rivalry.

 

With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the world entered a period of one superpower and multiple powers, as well as economic globalization. Top companies from both Eastern and Western countries flocked to New York for listing, while China became the world's factory, providing manufactured goods to the world.

After taking office for the first time in 2017, Trump pursued unilateralism, abandoned multilateralism, sidelined the WTO, and launched a trade war. Even though Biden's four years of governance saw some setbacks, today it has become "three worlds": two camps have taken shape, and a large number of countries that do not want to side are struggling to find a neutral balance.

Originally, Trump repeatedly withdrew from multiple important multilateral international organizations, and with the occurrence of events such as Putin's launch of the Russia Ukraine war, the foundation of an architecture has also been dug up.

 

Of course, most countries do not support the war launched by Russia, and the mainstream public opinion in Greenland, Canada, Panama, and even the United States does not support Trump's crazy words. However, the main driving force of historical development has always been the situation, not the changing public opinion.

The mainstream public likes peace, comfort, and development, but why are there always so many wars and hardships?

　　

Now, with Trump's second term in office approaching, a new round of tariff storm is poised to erupt. The global optimization configuration that pursues cost minimization and profit maximization is being replaced by individual circles.

In geopolitics, those who dare to tear open the window paper, no longer cover up, dare to pursue interests and demands, and obtain a more favorable environment for survival and development will emerge one by one sooner or later, with the only difference being whether they look good or bad.

In terms of values, the general principle of the sacred inviolability of sovereign states is weakening, and dialogue, cooperation, and multilateralism are increasingly being challenged.

On the platform of architecture, the WTO has ceased to exist in name, while other international organizations, including the United Nations, use what is beneficial to themselves, shout for reform or threaten to withdraw if there is no benefit or if the harm outweighs the benefit.

 

Just like in the Spring and Autumn period of China, although the Zhou emperor declined, the various feudal states still respected him in name, and the competition among countries still followed some rules of Zhou etiquette. In the Warring States period, the Zhou emperor and Zhou rituals were regarded as non-existent, and countries directly competed with each other by force.

The transformation of historical stages will be a long process, and many things will only become more apparent many years later.

Is this the transitional period between the Spring and Autumn period and the Warring States period?

 

Huang Laodao, who was popular during the Warring States period, was the main school of Taoism and had a significant influence on the feudal states at that time.

The Taoist literature of the Warring States period, "Four Classics of the Yellow Emperor," unearthed from the Mawangdui Han Tomb in Changsha, China in 1973, includes four classic texts: "Classics and Laws," "Ten Great Classics," "Titles," and "Dao Yuan." Based on the foundation of Laozi's theory, it integrates the theories of the Hundred Schools and proposes a series of ideas that still have some enlightening significance for us.

 

The Four Classics of the Yellow Emperor propose the principle of "morality first and punishment later for health preservation", which prioritizes being kind to others, mutually beneficial in trade, exporting excellent culture, expanding circle of friends, followed by strengthening military force, upholding justice, and defending international order and morality when necessary.

At the same time, the Yellow Emperor's Four Classics also proposed the principle of "following the name and punishing the reality". Each country should find its own position, have its own status, rights, and assume different international obligations. Each country should respect the status of others and not evade its own responsibilities.

The Four Classics of the Yellow Emperor also emphasize the concept of "extreme reversal, prosperity and decline", as analyzed by contemporary historian Paul Kennedy in his masterpiece "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers". Over the past five hundred years, the changes in world hegemony and excessive expansion have marked the beginning of the decline of great powers.

In the context of the Yellow Emperor's Four Classics, to lead the world, it requires favorable timing, geographical location, and human harmony.

 

In recent years, Argentina, India, and many European countries have been turning to the right, and Trump is about to take office for the second time. The original post World War II order has suffered many impacts, and this situation may be a natural one.

It is worth observing whether more countries will optimize their geopolitical environment through peaceful or non peaceful means, as Russia takes the lead in creating a better geopolitical environment.

At the end of the day, in the era of great competition, the key lies in human harmony, in the value concepts and development models that can better attract elite talents from all over the world and benefit the broadest masses of people through innovation.

当地时间1月20日，特朗普将第二次就任美国总统。

在上一任期，他已经强力推动了经济全球化的终结进程，而在新的任期，他会不会成为继进攻乌克兰的普京之后，又一个给二战后国际秩序解体加速的人？

而当今之世，是否类似于中国春秋时期向战国时期的过渡？ 

在这段等候就任的日子里，特朗普动作频频，早已提前进入"总统"角色。

他调停俄乌战争、介入巴以冲突，又放言要收购格陵兰、兼并加拿大、夺回巴拿马运河。

对丝毫不在乎二战后国际秩序的人来说，国不分大小、相互尊重一律平等，主权国家不受侵犯……这都是个什么玩意！

既然普京企图永久占领乌克兰领土，还不能得到驱逐和担责，那么别人为什么就不可以？

 

着眼于格陵兰、加拿大和巴拿马运河，与从经济全球化撤退到孤立主义，实属一脉相承。

从欧洲和中东等地进行战略收缩，固守北美基本盘；

继续实施均势战略、离岸平衡，逼迫欧盟、日韩澳印等加大支出，与亚欧大陆的新兴大国开展战略竞争，防止任一强国，又尤其防止实力最强的做大；

自己则减少支出、扩大收益，对外加筑关税高墙，对内减税，重振本国产业；

在北冰洋以南、巴拿马运河以北、大西洋以西、太平洋以东建立"MAGA"的"大北美共荣圈"，或许是特朗普的诉求。

 

从第一任期到第二任期，特朗普有可能会从拆解经济全球化，到进一步加速拆解二战后国际秩序。

现有国际秩序是1945年二战结束时奠定，是从冷战时期的一个架构、两套体系，发展到苏联解体后的一个架构、准一套体系。

一个架构，即以联合国为核心，在五强的秩序维护下，奉行多边主义，以对话与合作为机制，减少和避免战争和冲突。

两套体系，即由于美苏争霸，世界分裂为两个"半球化"。

 

而随着苏联解体、冷战结束，世界进入一超多强和经济全球化，如东、西方各国顶级企业蜂拥纽约上市，而中国成为世界工厂为全球提供制造品。

特朗普在2017年初次上任后，推行单边主义、摒弃多边主义，架空WTO、大打贸易战，即使拜登治理的四年有所回调，但今天成了"三个世界"：两大阵营已成形，不想站队的大量国家在艰难地寻求中立平衡。

原本特朗普就一再退出多个重要的多边国际组织，而随着普京发动俄乌战争等事件的发生，一个架构的墙脚也被挖动了。 

固然，多数国家不支持俄发动的战争，格陵兰、加拿大、巴拿马乃至美国的主流民意也不支持特朗普的狂言，但，历史发展的主要推动力从来取决于形势，而非多变的民意。

主流民意喜欢和平，要安逸，要发展，可为何总有那么多的战争和苦难？

　　

如今，随着特朗普二次执政在即，新一轮的关税风暴蓄势待发。那种追求成本最低化、利益最大化的全球优化配置，正在被各自划圈所取代。

在地缘政治上，一个个敢于撕破窗户纸，不再遮遮掩掩，敢于追逐利益诉求，获取更有利的生存和发展环境，早晚会一一涌现，区别只在于吃相好看还是难看点。

在价值观上，大体遵循主权国家神圣不可侵犯的原则在弱化，对话与合作、多边主义受到越来越大的冲击。

在架构平台上，WTO已经名存实亡，其他国际组织包括联合国，对自己有利则用，无利、弊大于利就高呼改革，或威胁退出。

 

正如中国春秋时期，周天子虽衰，但各诸侯国仍名义上尊奉之，各国争霸还遵循周礼的一些规矩。而到了战国时期，周天子和周礼被视如无物，各国直接以力相争。

历史阶段的转变会是一个漫长的过程，许多事要在很多年之后才会更明显。

当前，是这个春秋与战国的过渡期吗？

 

战国时期蔚为风行的黄老道，是道家学派的主干流派，对当时的诸侯国有着重要影响。

1973年在中国长沙马王堆汉墓出土的战国时期道家文献《黄帝四经》，包括了《经法》《十大经》《称》《道原》四部经典，在老子学说基石上，整合了百家之说，提出的系列思想对我们仍有一定的启示意义。 

《黄帝四经》提出"先德后刑以养生"，即优先与人为善、贸易互利、输出优秀文化、扩大朋友圈，其次才是强化武力、维护正义，必要时自卫反击，捍卫国际秩序和道义。

同时，《黄帝四经》还提出"循名责实"，各国都要找准自己的位置，各拥有一个名分，拥有各自的权利，承担不同的国际义务。各国要尊重他国的名分，也不逃避自己的责任。

《黄帝四经》还强调"极而反，盛而衰"，就像当代历史学家保罗·肯尼迪在其名作《大国的兴衰》中所分析的，近五百年来世界霸权的变迁，过度扩张就是大国衰败的开始。

"王天下者之道，有天焉，有地焉，有人焉"，在《黄帝四经》的语境中，要引领世界，需天时、地利、人和。

 

近年来，阿根廷、印度、欧洲多国在向右转，特朗普又即将二次执政，原有的二战后秩序经受诸多冲击，这种时势或为一种天时。

俄罗斯为了更优的地缘政治环境，率先下手，是否会有更多的国家以和平或非和平的手段，优化自身地缘政治环境，值得观察。

而归根结底，大争之世，重在人和，在于创新更能争取天下精英人才，更能让最广大人民受益的价值理念、发展模式。

在为这一历史转型贡献智慧之际，相信来自东方的文明，也能在多样性中发挥一份力量，应有一席之地。